Information video for Reasoning Evaluation Study

Hi all, Thank you for participating in our study. A few people asked for a recoding of the the post-survey information, so I decided to post a video instead of running a webinar. Also, it might be useful to be able to pause and review the reasoning techniques covered.

It’s a long video, so I’ve provide the times for certain topics below. (If you open up on youtube, you’ll find these in the description)

00:00 Intro
00:30 Reasoning Agnosia
06:00 Reasoning Stratagems
11:00 Technique – Reasoning Stress Test
14:33 Demonstrability of reasoning errors in study examples
20:00 Review of preliminary results
26:00 Our reasoning processes
31:40 How we compare explanations
42:25 Technique for generating hypotheses and checking estimates are coherent
1:00:00 Abductive reasoning with an example

Resources mentioned in the video

Common types of reasoning: Common Reasoning Stratagems

Reasoning flaws taxonomy: https://gomelb-dev1.its.unimelb.edu.au/canvas-courses/0DETE0002/tabs_new.html

Superforecasting book: https://www.penguin.com.au/books/superforecasting-9781448166596

Interview with Andrew Shearer, Director General of National Intelligence: https://huntlab.science.unimelb.edu.au/podcast-with-andrew-shearer/