Improving Analytic Rigour in Intelligence

The Hunt Lab has partnered with the Defence Science and Technology Group (DST) to undertake a project aimed at improving how intelligence agencies can improve analytic rigour.

The project is addressing three issues:

  • The nature of analytic rigour
  • Factors impacting analytic rigour
  • Opportunities for organisations to enhance analytic rigour

Research components include:

  • A systematic literature review, and creation of an open online database of relevant literature
  • Convening an Expert Panel involving experts from around the world to generate a Consensus View
  • A survey of current intelligence analysts and managers

On the basis of these activities, the Hunt Lab will produce a report and academic publications.

This project dovetails with another current project aimed at building advanced analytical reasoning skills via training in a new method of evaluating analytical reasoning.

 

Systematic literature review

The literature review will include a synthesis of all relevant academic work of the last few decades, alongside a range of government and agency-specific documents from partner organisations. This review will inform both the Expert Panel and the Survey.

Online database of relevant literature

The Hunt Lab will provide an online database of literature on the basis of the literature review. This resource will be available publicly and will be linked to from this page.

 

Expert Panel

Slated for late September 2020, the Expert Panel will be an opportunity for leading experts worldwide to gather to discuss and share information and insights related to analytic rigour in intelligence. The process spans three weeks and will encompass issues relating to the nature of analytic rigour, and opportunities for improving it in the workplace. From the process, a Consensus View will be generated representing the views held by panelists.

Learn more about the Expert Panel

 

Survey

The Hunt Lab will conduct a workplace survey into current practices, policies and understandings of analytic rigour in the intelligence community. The survey will aim to gain direct insight into how analytic rigour is understood, implemented and evaluated in the workplace.